Question of the day: When do you think the war will finally end for America?
I wish I was more optimistic about this, but the three most likely “best case” scenarios I see for the “early” withdrawal of our troops are as follows:
First, Bush bombs Iran, causing our troops to come under such ferocious attacks from both Iran itself and outraged Iraqi Shiites that staying in Iraq becomes untenable. Unfortunately, our troops don’t get to come home, since other wars pop up around the region due to the destabilizing effect of the attack on Iran.
Second, congressional Republicans panic as the election draws near, withdrawing their support for the war in mass. Bush refuses to back down, but an antiwar consensus forms that paves the way for a decision to withdraw being reached shortly after the election in November of 2008: our troops are gradually drawn down over the course of the following year.
Third, congressional Republicans (and GOP presidential candidates) stand strong for the war all the way to Election Day: the general public slaughters pro-war candidates of both parties, with by far the biggest blow falling on the GOP. This causes Beltway insiders to finally come to terms with the fact that continuation of the war isn’t politically feasible: our troops are gradually drawn down over the course of the following year.
Best-case scenario overall: our troops are out of Iraq by November 2009.
Worst-case scenario overall: in 10 years I drive my son (currently 8-years-old) to Canada to keep him from being drafted and sent to Iraq.
So what do you think?
September 7th, 2007 at 10:51 am
Steve,
I’ve been to Canada a few times. What a beautiful country!
I could recommend a couple of nice little towns you could settle down in for a while.
I’ve given a lot of thought to this over the years. The possibilities, the scenarios are too vast for my little brain. How can anything good come of something so screwed up? I know we’ll stay as long as Bush is in command because we can’t give Congress a spine.
The election is everything, which is probably why Rove figured he’d better get started right now stealing votes and disenfranchising democrats.
If Bush “persuades” Iraqis to give up their oil, then he could say our presence will be reduced to protecting “our interests” and manning our super-duper embassy. The violence would continue.
If Bush gave up and let them keep their oil, the violence would continue.
If we left would the conflict widen? That’s the conundrum. We don’t know.
We simply have no way of knowing the full consequences of our actions.
Yet, we must choose a path. So, here we stand at a crossroads with nothing to guide us except history. Iraq will go tribal, perhaps we all will.
We know that Bush doesn’t care about any history he didn’t try to revise so…………….my prediction……the fishing will be good in Canada.
September 7th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Since 1776, how many years have we NOT been at war with somebody?
September 7th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
Speaking of war in the so-called Middle East, (Middle East of where?) Here are a few interesting statistics I’ve found: the estimated cost of the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan is estimated by the the Congressional Review Service (probably a low-ball estimate,) at $12 billion/MONTH $10 billion for Iraq.
To segue this little bit into Syria & Riverbends’ family problems, according to a report I heard on NPR, the Syrian Government has decided all Iraqi refugees will be required to have visas. Why is that? It costs Syria $1 billion/YEAR for these refugees. The help from the international community is next to nil. In consequence, those visas will be limited to 4 months. Where to go after that? $10 billion per month versus $1 billion per year?
Another interesting set of numbers I got from a Doonesbury cartoon of 9/2 is that the total debt the United States has accumulated since 1776 is $9 TRILLION, 70% of which came from the Reagan/Bush, Bush I & Bush II administrations.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:22 am
Keep watching the economy, China, Russia, the huge deficit, and layoffs. When people who have previously been solvent, are not, the s–t will hit the fan. It will no longer be fashionable to be Republican. The Fat Cats will actually lose some blubber, and the Neo-Conservatives will look like the criminals they truly are. It has to hurt in the pocket books of the majority. If that happens before the 2008 election, the Repugs will be toast. Then, hopefully, the spineless Democrats will get the message from the people, get the Fear of God put into them, and start withdrawing troops and seeking assistance from other Arab nations to work on diplomatic alternatives. It may get worse before it gets better in Iraq. I am sure that will be the case. But, as long as we remain an occupying force, there will be no effort to resolve anything in Iraq. It is the best revenge Saddam Hussein could ever wish for from the grave. We are sinking our own boat.