Growth industry of 2007: Antiwar Republicans

I predict that George W. Bush has six months, nine at most, before the bottom falls out.  Not in Iraq itself — that bottom fell out a long time ago.  No, I’m talking about GOP support for the war. 

A sense of growing concern — really more like abject terror –  is spreading like a flu epidemic among the ranks of the Republican Party over how the war in Iraq will play out politically in 2008.  While most of the punditry continues to treat the 2006 results as a one time curiosity, smart Republican politicos know better.  Something much more fundamental is at work.

The danger signs for the GOP are everywhere.  For one thing, the public, not unexpectedly showing considerably more common sense than much of our political leadership, remains strongly opposed to US policy in Iraq, with huge majorities opposing any increase in the number of troops stationed there.  When one considers that just such a “surge” in troop numbers appears to be the evolving GOP Iraq strategy, the political risk couldn’t be clearer.  (All the more true given the fact the strategy has virtually no chance of working.) 

Add to that the fact John McCain, Republican presidential frontrunner and leading congressional advocate for increasing force levels, is seeing a significant drop in his support among independents (probably as a result of his taking that very position) and you begin to see the first outlines of a possible GOP perfect storm.

Republicans in Congress largely stood by Bush in 2006 and they got their clocks cleaned.  They won’t do it again.

We already have the recent “statement of conscience” against the war by Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR), who just happens to face a tough reelection contest in ’08.  Assuming there are no stunning improvements on the ground in Iraq over the next few months, sadly a fairly safe bet, I think the following is likely to happen: At first we’ll see a small trickle of additional Smith-like GOP flips to the antiwar camp.  But relatively soon, probably no more than six to nine months from now, as the political panic really sets in, the dam will break.

I predict that by the end of 2007, George W. Bush is going to find himself a very lonely man. 

POSTNOTE: And, yes, it is sad that political calculation, as opposed to concern for the lives of our troops, may in many cases be the deciding factor that turns GOP representatives and senators against the war, but as a member of the reality-based community, I have to call it as I see it.   

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3 Responses to “Growth industry of 2007: Antiwar Republicans”

  1. Larkrise Says:

    If the economy starts to seriously falter, your prediction will most definitely come true. The slide of the dollar has been one of the most under-reported events of the past year. The American public is living in a Fool’s Paradise as far as the economy is concerned. In the meantime, if you were one of the Pharoah’s of Finance, and worked for Goldman Sachs, you made out like a bandit. The million dollar bonuses have fueled a surge in demand for luxury items, like $500,000 custom-designed sports cars, yachts, and private jets. The Christmas boost to retail sales, however, has turned out to be a bust. Of course! The average person doesnt have the big bucks to throw around on designer dresses or even higher-end off the rack. The ever-growing economic inequality is becoming more and more apparent to cash-strapped Americans. The Republican Party and its overwhelming support for tax-breaks for the wealthy will be held accountable, as well they should.

  2. VettaKing Says:

    I just hope that the one good thing that will come from Bush’s presidency is the death of the modern Republican party. No matter how hard the media tries to spin it everyone knows that this is Republican war.

  3. Again Says:

    Larkrise

    If the economy starts to seriously falter, your prediction will most definitely come true.

    signs on the wall

    some days ago i’ve heard the following news: “For the first time, the euro surpassed the US dollar in terms of the number of banknotes in circulation”

    well done, Mr. Bush - maybe you and your rich friends will soon learn the power (and value) of trust and how dependent on each other every human is - even the arrogant Aristocrats…

    “When things are equal, people buy from friends. When things are unequal, people still buy from friends. Therefore, make friends” - Mark McCormack

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